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[Eddy]

I saw a report on CNN listing alleged innovations of the past few years. I've stated repeatedly (and much to Joe's frustration) that we are a civilization in decline and there is no better place this is reflected than in our supposed technological progress. While people claim that we are reaching new heights, I boldly proclaim that we are in decline because nothing of any significance has been invented since the 70s.

The original list: http://www.cnn.com/2005/TECH/01/03/cnn25.top25.innovations/index.html

1. (Note that this is not on the list)

2. Cell phone

Mobile phones existed back in the 40s and were used in the war.

3. Personal computers

1960s. If you include terminals, try another ten years earlier.

4. Fiber optics

1970s. Not much of an invention I must say. Sparkly lights? Please.

5. E-mail

1960s at the latest.

6. Commercialized GPS

1970s. What possible use is this anyway?

7. Portable computers

1970s.

8. Memory storage discs

1950s. Nice guys. It's called drums. Read your history.

9. Consumer level digital camera

A useless gadget inferior to film.

10. Radio frequency ID tags

What use could this be?

11. MEMS

What is this? If I haven't heard of it, it can't be important.

12. DNA fingerprinting

Around since the 70s.

13. Air bags

Ralph Nader is an old fart. Oh you mean the ones in cars. 1970s.

14. ATM

The base technology existed in the 70s, but banks were too lazy to bother.

15. Advanced batteries

Batteries? The farking ancient Egyptians had these.

16. Hybrid car

A car that has a battery? Try 100 years ago.

17. OLEDs

What are these? Now if you said OREOs I might get excited.

18. Display panels

1920s.

19. HDTV

Why bother with better resolution when the shows are worse than ever?

20. Space shuttle

A downgrade from the 1960s Saturn V. We can't even reach the moon now.

21. Nanotechnology

Flash in the pan, like cold fusion.

22. Flash memory

Useless.

23. Voice mail

Can we say reel to reel tape? Can we say 1950s?

24. Modern hearing aids

1960s.

25. Short Range, High Frequency Radio

Radio? That was the 1920s.

I don't see one innovation here.

[Che]

Quote: 14. ATM

The base technology existed in the 70s, but banks were too lazy to bother.


I read something the other day that stated the first ATM was installed in an English bank in 1969.

I will see if I can find it again.

[Eddy]

I did a quick google on "first ATM". Apparently the first working prototype was invented in 1969 with a patent issued in 1973.

[JuntaJoe]

As I mentioned last time, refining technology constitutes innovation itself.

Why? Because it leads to new things.

We had the idea of a helicopter from Leonardo, but it took a Russian named Sikorsky and several hundred years just to get the thing off the ground and back safely.


I like the list, but I agree that it is a poor representation of emerging technology. See my next thought.

Where are the massive breakthroughs in physics and cosmology?

String Theory gave us 5 new dimensions past time, space, and weak force.

It may even prove to be the holy grail of physics, the Unified Theory.

Or how about genetics?

Some family just bought the first commercial clone of their old cat.

And that is merely the potential for a new field that promises to radically change medicine and evolution itself.

The Genome Project boggles the mind in its potential.

I also noted that the list relies heavily on derivatives of electricity and radio forces.



Eddy's right that most of that stuff is hitting apogee. That's because we know the absolute limits of those forces and are hitting the extremes of their applied technology.

But have you ever heard of a quantum computer?

It comes from the emerging technology of energy teleportation.

Yep, teleportation. Now that's Trekkie stuff.

Scientists have actually teleported electronics signals recently. Instantaneous transmission. No waiting on the speed of light or the frailties of conductivity.

That could mean computers that have a zero lag time as the data is generated instantaneously. The only potential limit to that computer will become the desire and input of requests.



But that list does have a few shining stars. Not in their innovation, but in their potential effect on society.

RFID's will be huge in their effects on society. Those little tags will put the cumbersome labor of counting and recording stuff out the window. Imagine just grabbing what you need at stores and walking out. The door will recognized the products, record their sale, bill your account or credit, compute the taxes for the company, change the inventory count, and order a replacement. All instantaneously. NO MORE LINES AT THE MARKET!

The air bags are an indicator, albiet a poor one, of automotive safety technology that is coming out. You hear things like skid control and tuned response used in auto ads. What it really means is that the car will not just respond to your input, but respond to what you actually want. The car compensates for your lack of skill and understanding of current road conditions. Turning on an icy road and finding the turn smooth because the car seamlessly compensated for the slick patch you just hit. You never knew that you were in danger.

Finally, you should pick up the latest Popular Science. Several guys have been trying to overcome the intertia of society and give us affordable flying cars. Yep, you heard it here. Flying cars! The highlighted promise of utopian World's Fair's a century ago can come true if society and industry gets their heads out of the sand.

Skip this list, Eddy. The crafters had no clue on true emerging technology. They are just gadget fans who love their new toys and think they are innovative. The emerging technology is out there. These guys just don't see it.

[JuntaJoe]

I found some info on the two acronyms that confused Eddy.

OLEDs and MEMS


First item:


OLED's future is bright for small screens
Paul Kallender, IDG News Service

11/10/2004 10:17:35

Toshiba will begin volume production of two or more sizes of small OLED (Organic Light Emitting Diode) screens next year, officials from the company said in interviews at Ceatec Japan 2004 this week.

Customers for the panels could include a wide range of companies as well as Toshiba and Matsushita Electric Industrial, TMD's major shareholders. This means OLED technology is finally primed to begin replacing LCDs (liquid crystal displays) in small screens and that consumers will be able to enjoy better pictures on their multimedia and DVD players and viewers on their digital video cameras, said Michio Nogawa, a specialist at TMD's marketing and engineering department in an interview on Thursday.

"OLED's technology advantage is that it's very bright, has a higher contrast than LCD, and is good for moving pictures," he said.

Because OLEDs do not require backlights, the screens are typically 15 percent to 20 percent thinner than equivalent sized LCDs, he said.

TMD will begin producing 3.5-inch QVGA (320 pixel by 240 pixel) OLED screens before the end of September 2005, and screens just over two inches in size before the end of March 2006. In addition the company is looking to produce screens in the 10-inch size range in 2007 or 2008, he said.

The company is not disclosing the number of 3.5-inch screens it plans to make, and it has yet to finalize exactly what size the 2-inch range screens will be. But TMD sees a market emerging for the 3.5-inch screens for portable multimedia players, for example, Nogawa said. A first application for the 2-inch class could well be viewers for digital still and video cameras, and, perhaps later, screens for mobile phones, he said.

TMD is a joint venture by Toshiba and Matsushita that was set up in April 2002 after the companies decided to merge their LCD operations. Because of this, both companies are likely customers, he said.

"We are just a panel maker, so we are not officially saying who our customers are, but you can guess them, and Matsushita is our shareholder," said Nogawa.

Toshiba is interested in using the 3.5-inch screen in future multimedia players, TMD's Kenji Nakagawa, a specialist at the company's marketing and engineering department, said in an interview earlier this week. Toshiba is exhibiting a player equipped with a satellite tuner that it is producing for Mobile Broadcasting's satellite broadcasting service that starts operation Oct. 20.

Toshiba is considering developing multimedia players that have terrestrial digital tuners and/or satellite tuners, and such players will benefit from using OLED screens, Nakagawa said.

OLED has long been seen as a potential replacement technology for LCDs for small screens and several major Japanese companies, including Seiko Epson and Sanyo Electric have expressed interest in the technology. Seiko Epson plans to use OLEDs in 40-inch TVs, and the company has already made prototypes, according to the company earlier this year.

In September, Sony announced that it will start production of 3.8-inch OLEDs in 2005 for its new Clie© PEG-VZ90 PDA (personal digital assistant). Beyond this, the company is considering using small OLED screens for digital still cameras, digital video cameras and small thin clients from 2005.

The recent announcements show that OLEDs are ready to start replacing LCDs in more and more applications, according to Kimberly Allen, director of technology and strategic research at U.S.-based market research company iSuppli.

"Oh, this is the real deal. Once a few players get in, they will all have to," she wrote in an Oct. 8 e-mail interview.

"All the major Japanese players are likely to use OLED for small screens ... and once one jumps, they all will. But don't only pay attention to Japan," she wrote.

As well as Sony and its ST Liquid Display joint venture with Toyota, ELDis, a joint venture formed by a Tohoku Pioneer and Sharp is planning OLED production for its parents Pioneer and Sharp. Also, Casio Computer, Samsung Electronics, Samsung SDI, and LG Electronics are all interested in volume production of OLED screens sooner rather than later, she wrote.

Allen warned that recent announcements do not mean OLED screens will become mainstream in all portable products in 2006 or 2007. This is partly because any of the first applications, such as PDAs and multimedia players are made in relatively small numbers compared to cellular phones, for example, and also because companies have invested billions of dollars in LCD technology

"Obviously they aren't going to gut a cash cow for something risky and expensive like OLED. So they'll introduce it slowly and strategically, making sure they still get maximum revenue from their LCD business," she wrote.

The global OLED market is due to grow from US$429 million in 2004 to $3.3 billion in 2010, according to iSuppli's latest forecast.


Next item:


Micro-Electro-Mechanical Systems (MEMS) is the integration of mechanical elements, sensors, actuators, and electronics on a common silicon substrate through microfabrication technology. While the electronics are fabricated using integrated circuit (IC) process sequences (e.g., CMOS, Bipolar, or BICMOS processes), the micromechanical components are fabricated using compatible "micromachining" processes that selectively etch away parts of the silicon wafer or add new structural layers to form the mechanical and electromechanical devices.

MEMS promises to revolutionize nearly every product category by bringing together silicon-based microelectronics with micromachining technology, making possible the realization of complete systems-on-a-chip. MEMS is an enabling technology allowing the development of smart products, augmenting the computational ability of microelectronics with the perception and control capabilities of microsensors and microactuators and expanding the space of possible designs and applications.

Microelectronic integrated circuits can be thought of as the "brains" of a system and MEMS augments this decision-making capability with "eyes" and "arms", to allow microsystems to sense and control the environment. Sensors gather information from the environment through measuring mechanical, thermal, biological, chemical, optical, and magnetic phenomena. The electronics then process the information derived from the sensors and through some decision making capability direct the actuators to respond by moving, positioning, regulating, pumping, and filtering, thereby controlling the environment for some desired outcome or purpose. Because MEMS devices are manufactured using batch fabrication techniques similar to those used for integrated circuits, unprecedented levels of functionality, reliability, and sophistication can be placed on a small silicon chip at a relatively low cost.

[Brf]

Eddy wrote: 3. Personal computers

1960s. If you include terminals, try another ten years earlier.



Hardly.... Computers back in the 60s were those giant vacuum-tube thingees. The "personal computer" as we know it came out in the late 70s when I was in highschool.

[Maus]

Twas a good chuckle to see palm-sized wireless cell phones equated with those gawdawful hand-cranked WWII-vintage land-line field phones, laptop PCs equated with room-filling mainframes/card-readers/teletypes, and palm-sized gigabyte storage discs equated with those gawdawful trashcan-sized kilobyte drums from the 60s.

I'm going for broke: inasmuch as chemistry, medicine, physics, biology and stuff have been around for thousands of years, absolutely nothing noteworthy has come up since, say, our primate ancestors discovered gravity by letting go of the tree limb. :wink:

[Che]

:lol:... no one can say it better.

Maus must be home on leave... from running one of his spy networks :P

[Brf]

I can remember those first PCs in college that had no harddrive. Everything was run off those 5-1/4 floppies. The first 5-meg harddrives from 23 years ago were about the size of today's smaller desktop PCs.

Today's 200-gig harddrives hold 40,000 times as much data in a much tinier space. The newest 10-gig harddrive is the size a postage stamp...

[Eddy]

Bah! Fire was a waste of time! Next you'll say that throwing rocks is an improvement over biting the sabre tooth tigers.

[JuntaJoe]

And no comment on my MEMS info?

Geez, that was actually interesting.

[Maus]

The MEMs are nice, but nothing gives a lash-up that baroque feel better than a row of good ol' knife switches and a hunchback to throw them while you cackle insanely. You don't suppose they could produce MEMs that use micro-hunchbacks as actuators?

[Eddy]

Some interesting points made here. That clarification of MEMS hurts my liberal arts filled head though.

[Maus]

Here's some examples of the real stuff. I came upon this while catching up on the past 3 months of Scientific American. Luckily, the full article is available on their website:

The 2004 Scientific American 50 Award

(leader)

"A physicist creates a fundamentally new state of matter and foresees that it could one day lead to better superconductors. Meanwhile a nonprofit drug company--yes, there really is such a thing--labors to recycle an old antibiotic to combat a deadly parasitic disease in developing nations. Those two innovations, one a basic discovery, the other a novel application of existing technology, illustrate the breadth of ingenuity recognized by the third annual Scientific American 50. The magazine's Board of Editors has compiled a diverse list of those who during 2003-2004 exhibited outstanding technology leadership in the realms of research, business and policymaking. Most of the members of this year's honor roll are from the U.S., but they also hail from as far afield a s India, Ghana and Israel. These awards demonstrate the love of knowledge driving basic research, the entrepreneurial spirit spurring development of, say, a nanotube microchip, and the desire to find new ways to make tiny fuel cells or to use the Internet to assist poor south Asian farmers. All originate from a common need to take what we know one step further."

[JuntaJoe]

Yep, if you want info, go to the experts.

Don't ask a reporter for science information.

And don't ask your mechanic for gardening tips. :wink:

[Maus]

Woot! Nanotechnology moves into the realm of practical application:

Nanotech Delivers Cancer Treatment

(excerpts)

By attaching a chemotherapeutic drug to manmade nanoparticles, the team of researchers at the University of Michigan were able to smuggle it inside cancerous cells, delaying the growth of tumors in mice by up to 30 days -- the equivalent of three years in a human.

Professor of biologic nanotechnology James Baker, who led the research, said that the treatment might eventually turn cancer into a chronic but treatable condition.

The study, which is published in the current edition of the Cancer Research journal, is one of the first successful therapeutic uses of nanotechnology on living animals.
(...)
The nanoparticle-based therapy was 10 times more effective at delaying tumor growth in mice and less toxic to other cells and tissue than conventional treatment.

[JuntaJoe]

Now that is damn cool, if you ask me. :D

[Batchman]

until they discover that the cancer cure is known to sometimes cause cancer ... well, you know they are going to discover it sometime.

Personally, I made a discovery that makes all these other cancer causing discoveries obsolete ... life causes cancer.

[CooJoe]

Don't make me prevent you from getting cancer! :twisted:

That's pretty cool that nano technology is starting to be used.

[ExarKun]

Yeah, I visited U of I and got to see some of it once. There is suposedly technology to prevent odour with nano's. Kinda bizare.